Market Forecast: Cobalt, Nickel, and Lithium Prices to Decline by December 2024
Goldman Sachs Predicts Drop in Key Minerals for Energy Transition
Goldman Sachs, renowned for its market analysis, foresees a downturn in cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices by December 2024, essential minerals for the energy transition. Analysts attributed this projected decline to decreasing demand from the electric vehicle industry in Western nations.
According to Goldman’s forecast estimates, cobalt prices are expected to decrease by 12%, nickel by 15%, and lithium by 25% over the next twelve months.
The bank’s analysts emphasized that despite supply constraints in late 2023 due to margin pressures, anticipated surpluses in 2024 remain significant amid declining demand from Western electric vehicle markets.
Since 2023, these minerals, vital for electric batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels, have seen substantial decreases in international markets. Cobalt prices have plummeted by 65%, nickel by 60%, and lithium by 80%.
The most notable event contributing to this trend was a 70% drop in the price of lithium carbonate in China, reducing it to $23,450 per ton from $80,000 per ton in December 2022.
The deceleration in electric car growth, a primary factor in this price decline, has also impacted nickel and cobalt prices. Nickel currently trades at $18,330 per ton, down 40% from January 2023, while cobalt sits at $30,000 per ton.
